El nuevo escenario teleonómico mundial (German Gorraiz L.) - TicoVisión
Escrito en 04/08/16 a 08:37:09 GMT-06:00 Por Administrador
Germán Gorraiz López
¿Nuevo Vietnam en Oriente Medio? Nueva Crisis de los Misiles.  La cartografía de la nueva Europa. Nueva Geopolítica Inter Pares (G3). ¿Nueva ola involucionista mundial? Tras la aprobación del Congreso y Senado de...

El nuevo escenario teleonómico mundial (German Gorraiz L.) - TicoVisión


4 de agosto de 2016 | TicoVisión | Redacción: TicoVisión | Categoría: Análisis | San José, Costa Rica | Tribuna para el Libre Pensamiento




El nuevo escenario teleonómico mundial



Por Germán Gorraiz López *
Analista Internacional

    El biólogo francés Jacques L. Monod en su ensayo "El azar y la necesidad" (1.970) explica que las variables del logos y el azar de la evolución humana serían aspectos complementarios de la necesaria adaptación evolutiva de los seres vivos ante los cambios drásticos para asegurar su éxito reproductor (supervivencia) con lo que asistiríamos a la irrupción de un "escenario teleonómico" en contraposición al llamado "escenario teleológico" vigente en la actual sociedad occidental. El Brexit marcará pues el finiquito del "escenario teleológico" en el que la finalidad de los procesos creativos eran planeadas por modelos finitos que podían intermodelar o simular varios futuros alternativos y en los que primaba la intención, el propósito y la previsión y su sustitución por el "escenario teleonómico", marcado por dosis extremas de volatilidad que afectarán de manera especial a sistemas complejos como el Cambio Climático, la Detección y Prevención de Epidemias, los Flujos Migratorios, la Bolsa de Valores y el Nuevo Orden Geopolítico Mundial.

¿Nueva ola involucionista mundial?

    Asimismo, estaríamos en vísperas de la irrupción en el escenario geopolítico de la nueva ola desestabilizadora mundial originada por causas económicas (el ocaso de la economía global); culturales (el declive de las democracias formales occidentales debido a la cultura de la corrupción; el déficit democrático de EEUU plasmado en el Programa Prism llevado a cabo por la Administración Obama y la pérdida de credibilidad democrática de incontables gobiernos de países occidentales y del Tercer Mundo) y geopolíticas (la irrupción de un nuevo escenario geopolítico mundial tras el retorno al endemismo recurrente de la Guerra Fría entre EEUU y Rusia). Dicha estrategia consistirá en la implementación de "golpes de mano blandos" que tendrían a Honduras, Paraguay, Egipto, Ucrania, Irak ,Tailandia y Yemen como paradigmas, con el objetivo inequívoco de sustituir a los regímenes insensibles a los dictados de Washington por regímenes militares autocráticos, produciendo un goteo antidemocrático que terminará deviniendo en una nueva ola involucionista mundial que alcanzará a todos los continentes y que tendrá especial virulencia en Oriente Medio (Líbano, Turquía, Túnez, Pakistán y Azerbaiyán) y América Latina ( Brasil, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Bolivia, Haití, El Salvador, Panamá y Venezuela).

Nueva Geopolítica Inter Pares (G3)

    Tras la intervención de la NATO en Libia, se habría producido un inusual coincidencia de China y Rusia en forma de veto en la ONU, con lo que podríamos asistir al nacimiento

de una alianza ruso-china impulsada por Putin que tendría su plasmación con la aparición en el escenario geopolítico mundial de la Unión Euroasiática como alternativa económica y militar al bloque hegemónico occidental. Así, según la agencia Reuters, Rusia y China habrían sellado un estratosférico contrato petrolero que se convierte en uno de los mayores de la historia de la industria energética por el que la empresa rusa Rosneft, (la mayor petrolera del país), suministrará petróleo al gigante asiático durante 25 años por valor de 270.000 millones de dólares (unos 205.000 millones de euros) lo que aunado con el megacontrato gasístico firmado por la rusa Gazprom y la china CNPC por el que Rusia suministrará al país asiático 38.000 milones de metros cúbicos de gas natural por un monto aproximado de 400.000 millones de dólares y con una vigencia de 30 años a través del gaseoducto Sila Sibiri (La Fuerza de Siberia). Ello sentaría las bases económicas de la futura Unión EuroAsiática que iniciará su singladura el 1 de enero del 2015 como alternativa económica y militar al proyecto de Obama de crear una Asociación Transpacífico (TPP por sus siglas en inglés), pieza central de EEUU en su política de reafirmación del poder económico y militar en la región del Pacífico, aunado con una posible ofensiva ruso-china junto con los demás países BRICS para cambiar de patrón monetario mundial y sustituir el papel del dólar como moneda de referencia.

    Asistiríamos pues en esta década al finiquito de la Unipolaridad de Estados Unidos y de su papel de gendarme mundial y su sustitución por la nueva doctrina de la Multipolaridad o Geopolítica Inter-Pares, formado por la Troika EEUU, China y Rusia (G3), lo que supondrá el inicio de la desmembración del BRIC (Brasil, Rusia, India y China), colectivo económico que habrían intensificado su cooperación política para obtener acuerdos en comercio exterior y extraer concesiones políticas de los Países desarrollados, (cooperación nuclear propuesta con la India y Brasil), y que tendrían el potencial de formar un bloque económico con un estatus mayor que del actual G-8 (se estima que en el horizonte del 2050 tendrían más del 40% de la población mundial y un PIB combinado de 34.951 Billones de dólares), quedando de paso la UE, Japón, India y Brasil como convidados de piedra en el nuevo escenario geopolítico.

La cartografía de la nueva Europa

    El retorno al endemismo recurrente de la Guerra Fría entre EEUU-Rusia tras la crisis de Ucrania y la mutua imposición de sanciones entre la UE y Rusia marcarían el inicio de la división en la otrora monolítica postura de los países de la OTAN ante Rusia. Así, en represalia a las sanciones impuestas por la UE en el 2015, Moscú respondió con un embargo a los productos agroalimentarios europeas que habría tenido como efectos colaterales unas pérdidas estimadas en 150 millones de € diarios según el líder de la Liga Norte italiana y diputado del Parlamento italiano, Matteo Salvini y un monto total de más de 100.000 millones (según datos de la propia CE, la exportación a Rusia de la UE en el 2.013 habría ascendido a los 120.000 millones €. En consecuencia, habría surgido una corriente liderada por Italia, Finlandia y Hungría que serían partidarios de suspender las sanciones a Rusia mientras en la orilla antinómica, tendríamos a Polonia, Gran Bretaña y Países Bálticos como adalides de seguir implementando dichas sanciones en el futuro mediato. Finalmente, no sería descartable que tras las Elecciones de Francia y Alemania en el 2.017, asistamos a una tardía reafirmación de la soberanía europea por parte de ambos países que incluiría la génesis de un nuevo proyecto europeo (Europa de los Siete), integrado por Francia, Alemania, Bélgica, Holanda, Italia, Luxemburgo y Austria, quedando el resto de países europeos periféricos (Portugal, España, Irlanda, Grecia, Eslovenia, Malta y Chipre) gravitando en sus anillos orbitales mientras que los países nórdicos procederán a la gestación de la Federación Escandinava (integrada por Noruega, Dinamarca, Suecia, Finlandia, Letonia, Estonia y Lituania) que pivotará en la ambivalencia comercial ruso-europea.

Nueva Crisis de los Misiles

    en septiembre de 2009 el presidente Obama (presionado por el establishment o poder en la sombra de EEUU), aprobaba la implementación del nuevo sistema europeo de defensa anti-misiles, (European Phased Adaptative Approach (EPAA), que en realidad se trata de un escudo anti-misil global en el que los misiles interceptores emplazados en plataformas móviles pueden abatir blancos en un espacio común (a base de datos transmitidos por todos los radares y sistemas de reconocimiento opto-electrónico).

    En un principio, Rusia y la OTAN acordaron cooperar en la creación del escudo anti-misiles para Europa en noviembre de 2010 en la Cumbre Bilateral de Lisboa, pues para Moscú era vital que la OTAN ofreciera garantías reales de que ese sistema no apuntaría a Rusia y disponer de un documento jurídicamente vinculante al respecto, pero la Administración Obama siguiendo la inercia mimética de la Administración Bush de ningunear a Rusia, ha rehusado hasta el momento ofrecer dichas garantías por escrito, pero tras el desenlace de la crisis de Crimea y el retorno a escenarios de Guerra Fría, es previsible que EEUU decida finalmente completar la cuarta fase del despliegue del escudo antimisiles en Europa (Euro DAM), con lo que asistiríamos a la instalación en Kaliningrado del nuevo misil balístico inter-continental de 100 Tm, ("el asesino del escudo antimisiles de EEUU" en palabras del viceprimer ministro ruso Dmitri Rogozin) , con lo que en palabras del politólogo Vladímir Abrámov "la provincia de Kaliningrado volverá a desempeñar el papel de pistola en la sien de Europa como hace dos décadas".

    Por su parte, según rt.com, Rusia estaría negociando instalar sus bases militares con Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Seychelles y Singapur con el objetivo inequívoco de ampliar el radio militar ruso, pues según el analista Lajos Szaszdi "la apertura de la bases en el exterior es necesaria para la disuasión estratégica de Rusia, la inteligencia, así como para verificar los acuerdos del desarme y también determinar qué planes hay de parte del Pentágono en caso de operaciones o intervenciones en el extranjero", no siendo descartable que en la reciente visita de Putin a la Isla se haya procedido a la firma de un nuevo Tratado de Colaboración militar ruso-cubana (rememorando el Pacto Secreto firmado en 1.960 en Moscú entre Raúl Castro Y Jruschov) que incluiría la instalación de una base de Radares en la abandonada base militar de Lourdes para escuchar cómodamente los susurros de Washington y la instalación de misiles Iskander , pudiendo revivirse la Crisis de los Misiles Kennedy-Jruschev (octubre, 1.962) y la posterior firma con Jrushchov del Acuerdo de Suspensión de Pruebas Nucleares (1962).

¿Nuevo Vietnam en Oriente Medio?

    Tras la aprobación del Congreso y Senado de EEUU de una declaración preparada por el senador republicano Lindsey Graham y el democráta Robert Menéndez que señala con rotundidad que "si Israel se ve obligado a defenderse y emprender una acción (contra Irán), EEUU estará a su lado para apoyarlo de forma militar y diplomáticamente", asistiremos al aumento de la presión del lobby pro-israelí de EEUU (AIPAC) para proceder a la desestabilización de Siria e Irán por métodos expeditivos en la etapa post-Obama. Dicha guerra será un nuevo episodio local que se enmarcaría en el retorno al endemismo recurrente de la Guerra Fría EEUU-Rusia e involucrará a ambas superpotencias teniendo como colabores necesarios a las potencias regionales (Israel, Egipto, Arabia Saudí e Irán), abarcando el espacio geográfico que se extiende desde el arco mediterráneo (Libia , Siria y Líbano) hasta Yemen y Somalia y teniendo a Irak como epicentro (rememorando la Guerra de Vietnam con Lindon B. Johnson (1963-1.969)y cuyo desenlace podría tener como efectos colaterales el diseño de una nueva cartografía favorable a los intereses geopolíticos de EEUU, Gran Bretaña e Israel con la implementación del Gran Israel ("Eretz Israel"). Ello supondría la restauración de la Declaración Balfour (1.917), que dibujaba un Estado de Israel dotado de una vasta extensión cercana a las 46.000 millas cuadradas y que se extendía desde el Mediterráneo al este del Éufrates abarcando Siria, Líbano, parte nororiental de Irak , parte norte de Arabia Saudí, la franja costera del Mar Rojo y la Península del Sinaí en Egipto así como Jordania, que pasaría a denominarse Palesjordán tras ser obligado a acoger a toda la población palestina de las actuales Cisjordania y Gaza forzada a una diáspora masiva (nueva nakba).



*Germán Gorraiz López nacíó en Navarra en 1957. Escribe análisis sobre temas económicos y geopolíticos. Colabora, además de en Diario SIGLO XXI, en otros medios digitales españoles y latinoamericanos como Bottup, España Liberal, Libre Pensador, Socialdemocracia.org, Alainet , CubaNuestra, Plano-Sur.org, Entorno-empresarial.com, El Mercurio Digital y actualmente con TicoVisión (Costa Rica). Ganador del "Premio Estocolmo 2009" en la categoría de: “Política Internacional”

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